MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of reaching 662 million tonnes of annual coal output by 2050 as part of a recently approved industry initiative. This target is included in the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal development strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government sanctioned the programme through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term goals for production, exports, and sector growth.
The plan presents four potential pathways for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary target scenario, production is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then climbs to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The other outlined scenarios predict lower production levels in 2050, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, Russia has set export targets. The primary scenario envisions coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. These exports are expected to increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The programme addresses both domestic consumption and international sales of coal.
Production and export objectives
The government’s initiative emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while developing additional coal resources. It also envisions a larger role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of national production in 2024. The plan aims to increase their combined share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The strategy also sets targets for coal processing and extraction methods. In 2024, the share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9%. The programme projects this figure rising to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of production in 2024, and its share is expected to grow to between 82% and 85% in the long term. The document also includes measures related to productivity, technology, safety, and environmental protection.
Coal development strategy extending to 2050
Russia will implement this programme in three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, concentrates on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress along with other federal and regional authorities and participating organizations. An annual report on implementation progress will be submitted to the Economic Development Ministry as mandated by the government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the updated programme during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan, which was valid through 2035 and approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also estimated its overall multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains part of the primary scenario rather than an unconditional forecast.