PARIS / EuroWire / – Global agricultural and fisheries production will expand by 13 percent over the next decade under stable market conditions, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035. The report, released in Paris, projects growth through 2035 across major farm commodities, biofuels and aquatic food markets.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said productivity gains will drive most of the increase. Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America will account for much of the production growth. The outlook covers national, regional and global markets.
Average gross agricultural income per worker will rise 9 percent by 2035, the report said. The gain reflects higher output per worker and broadly stable agricultural prices. The outlook also says volatility could reduce those gains for farmers in lower-income countries.
Production gains face input cost pressure
Energy and fertilizer costs remain a central risk for agricultural markets. The report estimates that a 33 percent average rise in energy prices in the first half of 2026 would cut global grain production by 0.9 percent in 2027 if it continued. The drop would reach 1.7 percent in low-income countries.
Lower fertilizer use would weigh on cereal output, especially where farmers have limited access to credit, storage and transport. Higher food prices and income losses would also push many low-income households toward cheaper food. High-income households would keep more stable diets.
Aquaculture drives seafood growth
Direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture will rise 6.5 percent over the next decade, according to the outlook. That pace remains below the projected rise in output. Livestock will account for about 77 percent of the emissions increase, while synthetic fertilizers will add 23 percent through higher nitrous oxide emissions.
Fisheries and aquaculture production will reach 216 million tonnes by 2035, up 11 percent from the 2023-2025 base period. Aquaculture will supply 56 percent of total output by 2035. Global cereal production will also keep rising, reaching 3.22 billion tonnes, with yield gains driving most of the increase.